Predictions

Updated 09/20/2026

We use some math to predict games, just for fun. It has nothing to do with the official ratings (see the regional pages for those).

This week we were right about winners 79% of the time (80% on the season). Scores are harder. We got the type of game (CCC) right 50% of the time (49% on the season):

Close: 7 points or fewer
Comfortable: 8 to 21
Convincing: 22 or more

Show

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

How we grade ourselves.

How often we call the winner right

Broken out by how sure we were going in.

The tighter the game, the harder it is to call.

What we predicted vs. what happened

The type of game we called, Close, Comfortable or Convincing, against the type it turned out to be.

How the predictions work

On a team's page, a game not yet played shows a Projected score. That is our own guess, built from the scores on this site. A projected score is not a VHSL number and never moves a team's seeding. Early in the season the predictions lean on where each team finished last year. By about week 4 they run on this season's results, and they get sharper as more games are played.

The predictions rely entirely on scores from this season and last. They know nothing about player eligibility, transfers, weather, or anything else that decides a game.